离散制造 · 齐套 · 交付

计划排得出，
物料备得齐，
订单交得准。

库存高却缺料，计划排得出却落不了地——根子在同一个地方：齐套率算不准。先算准齐套，再谈 APS 和 AI。齐套是先行指标，交期和库存是它的结果。

约一次诊断看怎么做齐套 AI 解决方案

TFM
APS
Lean

客户 · Clients

服务行业：汽车零部件 · 机加工 · 电子组装 · 装备制造|合作方式：诊断 · 年度顾问 · 专项项目

不用先上 APS，先把齐套率算准

很多报表上的齐套率，算的是采购单关了多少；车间要的，是下周哪张工单能开工。齐套AI解决方案从 ERP 只读取数，把需求、库存、在途、分配算成现货和按期两个齐套率，再用 BI 和 AI 让计划、采购、总经理看同一张数。

采购关闭率冒充齐套率

采购单关了多少，不等于工单开工前料齐了。

账面库存当可用库存

冻结、预留、安全库存没扣，账上有 500，能用只有 120。

在途按整单算

不看承诺交期和分批，采购单下了不等于料能到。

多张工单抢同一批料

没有分配留痕，每张工单都以为自己有料。

生产齐套率看板示意：需求 200，现货齐套率 65%，按期齐套率 85%，按期缺口 30，数据质量错误 0 — 教学演示数据，界面为示意。五个数回答「这个月能不能交」，明细回答「哪张工单缺什么」。

看齐套AI解决方案看三篇短文

TFM 全面流动管理

TFM（Total Flow Management，全面流动管理）是一套面向离散装配企业的运营改善方法。它以更短的订单交付周期、更高的准时交付率、更低的库存和更高的生产效率为目标，沿着五个层级识别并消除等待、库存和返工，把计划、齐套、交付连成一条连续流动的链。

增值流

工序内的增值时间、动作和质量

标准作业 · ECRS · SMED · 防错

物料流

物料从仓库到线边的移动和补给

超市 · 看板 · 双箱 · PFEP · 齐套

信息流

需求、计划、排程和采购指令

SIOP/PSI · MRP · APS · 单点计划

管理

日常管理和问题解决

SFM · KPI 看板 · A3

业务流程

跨部门端到端流程和职责接口

订单到交付流程 · 职责定义

TFM 由翟卫东在二十年制造实践中形成：源头是他在福伊特（Voith）学习并实践的保时捷精益体系；此后在多家德资和国内制造企业的项目中落地，并结合 APS 与数字化工具做了扩展。

三种合作方式

诊断

2 天现场，围绕计划、齐套和交付出问题清单与改善路线图。

1.5 万元

第一次接触的工厂

年度顾问 · 标准

12 个月，把计划、齐套、交付的机制跑起来。

6.8 万元起/年

50～500 人制造企业

项目制

齐套改善、降库存、APS 实施、工厂布局、SFM 车间管理，按项目做。

具体讨论

按项目范围定

项目制按范围、周期和目标单独讨论；差旅实报实销。

六个已交付项目

库存与齐套

某动力设备装配企业：重建 PSI、修复 MRP、分类补货、推行齐套。

3.0 → 1.5订单交付周期

89.7% → 99.4%计划达成率

库存与齐套改善案例：某动力设备装配企业，交付周期从 3.0 降到 1.5，计划达成率从 89.7% 升到 99.4%，物料库存从 130 天降到 100 天 — 库存与齐套 · 客户名已脱敏读完整案例：库存压着钱，订单还交不准

交期改善

某装备制造企业：按瓶颈排产、修 ERP 提前期、红黄绿黑缓冲。

71 → 34 天老品交期

78 → 41 天新品交期

按单生产、7000 多个物料、600 个成品 SKU。四个月，老品交期降 52%，新品交期降 47%。

读完整案例：交期缩短一半，靠的不是催

降库存

某汽车零部件工厂：五步法降库存，调整库存结构。

71 → 50库存周转天数 DIH

1.02 亿元一年库存降幅 33%

降库存案例：某汽车零部件工厂，库存周转天数从 71 天降到 50 天，整体库存金额降低 1.02 亿元；含库存控制 5 步法和 ABC-XYZ 分析 — 降库存案例 · 客户名已脱敏读完整案例：降库存 1 亿，靠的不是砍采购

流程愿景

某工业设备工厂：真北、价值流图和布局，一次做到 3～5 年。

50 → 82生产效率

+64%生产力理论潜力

流程愿景案例：某 S 工厂，真北、价值流图与布局规划，生产效率从 50 升到 82，生产力理论潜力 64% — 流程愿景案例 · 客户名已脱敏读完整案例：三五年后的工厂长什么样，先画出来

SFM 车间管理

某大型机械装配工厂：节拍生产、现场看板和 A3 问题解决。

1.14 → 1.3生产效率

6 → 14新订单

SFM 车间管理案例：某大型机械装配工厂，节拍生产、现场看板与 A3 问题解决，生产效率从 1.14 升到 1.3，新订单从 6 增到 14 — SFM 车间管理案例 · 客户名已脱敏读完整案例：车间管理不靠喊，六步让现场自己说话

一件流

某纺织仪器部件工厂：产线平衡、PFEP 和瓶颈工装。

352 → 400日产出

2,874 → 173在制品

一件流案例：某纺织仪器部件工厂，产线平衡、PFEP 与瓶颈工装，日产出从 352 增到 400，在制品从 2,874 降到 173 — 一件流案例 · 客户名已脱敏读完整案例：一条线，把在制品从 2874 件降到 173 件

点击每一行展开摘要；六项都能读完整案例页。客户名称已脱敏；数据来自已交付项目。

信息流错了，现场改善只会把错误执行得更快。

十篇文章，一条链：信息流怎么错、齐套怎么算、谁在两半的信息流里付代价。不谈概念，只讲厂里正在疼的那几件事。

齐套率算不准，先查这五件事

同一个厂，五个人算出五个数。大部分问题不在系统，在前两道关口：公式错、口径粗。

齐套 · 方法

先做现场改善、再数字化——这条精益铁律，正在害多品种小批量的工厂

5S 拿了集团奖，看板挂得整整齐齐，交期还是不准。不是没做，是顺序错了。

信息流 · 立论

2022 年那家厂，总经理被追责库存和交期，四个月后

订单饱满，交期承诺不出去，库存压在仓库里。我没从降库存进场，我从信息流进场。

案例 · 代价

全部十篇

二十年，只算一件事：这张工单的料，齐不齐。

APS、精益、布局、车间管理、BI，二十年都做过。最常卡住工厂的，是同一个地方：工单要开工，料不齐。所以现在把这件事放在最前面——先算准齐套，再谈 APS 和 AI。

制原科技合伙人、高级顾问。此前在诗道芬（德国）精益管理咨询任高级咨询师，在福伊特造纸任卓越运营经理（Lean Manager），在立达纺织仪器任 IT 工程师、精益工程师。MBA，东北财经。

擅长 APS 高级排程、精益数字化转型、工厂与仓储物流布局、SFM 车间管理、TPM、SMED、5S、A3 问题解决、降库存与齐套、准时交付、供应链 BI。

做顾问的方式很简单：先看现场和数字，再谈方法；先算账，再谈投入。不夸大效果，不承诺做不到的交付。

制原科技合伙人、高级顾问

诗道芬（德国）精益管理咨询 · 高级咨询师

福伊特造纸卓越运营经理（Lean Manager）

立达纺织仪器IT 工程师、精益工程师

东北财经大学MBA

常见问题

翟卫东是谁？

翟卫东（Austin Zhai），公开名「齐套老翟」，精益数字化顾问，20 年机械制造经验。制原科技合伙人、高级顾问，此前在诗道芬（德国）、福伊特造纸、立达纺织仪器工作，MBA 毕业于东北财经大学。

主要帮企业解决什么问题？

库存高却缺料，计划排得出却落不了地——根子在同一个地方：齐套率算不准。先算准齐套，再谈 APS 和 AI。齐套是先行指标，交期和库存是它的结果。

适合什么企业？

50～500 人、多品种小批量、有装配线的离散制造企业，例如装备制造、动力设备、纺织仪器。单一品种大批量和纯流程行业（化工、食品、医药原料）不适合。

怎么开始合作？

先做 2 天现场诊断，1.5 万元：第一天看现场、看数据、访谈；第二天出问题清单和 90 天路线图。之后可以按年度顾问（6.8 万元起/年）或项目制合作。差旅实报实销。

和 APS、ERP 软件商有什么不同？

不先卖软件。先把计划规则、物料参数和齐套机制理顺，再判断要不要上系统、上什么系统；已有 ERP 的企业，也可以先修参数和流程。

多久能看到效果？

公开案例中，两个项目的主要改善都在 4 个月内完成：一个订单交付周期从 3.0 降到 1.5，物料库存从 130 天降到 100 天；另一个老品交期从 71 天降到 34 天，新品从 78 天降到 41 天。具体效果取决于企业基础和执行配合，不承诺固定比例。

联系 · Contact

先从一次诊断开始

2 天现场，把问题看清楚：出问题清单，给出 3～6 个月的改善路线图。看不值得做，我会直说。

发邮件约诊断下载《开工前齐套自检表》PDF

邮箱 Emailaustin.zhai@hotmail.com 电话 Phone+86 150 6199 8080

微信 WeChatzhaiweidong

微信 · WeChat 扫码加微信，领《开工前齐套自检表》

备注「自检表」；也可以直接约 2 天现场诊断。

Discrete manufacturing · Kitting · Delivery

Plan. Kit. Deliver.

High inventory, missing parts, plans that cannot be executed — the root cause is the same: kit readiness is calculated wrong. Get kitting right first, then talk about APS and AI. Kit readiness leads; lead time and inventory follow.

Book a diagnostic How it works

TFM
APS
Lean

Clients

Industries: automotive components · machining · electronics assembly · equipment manufacturing|Engagements: diagnostic · annual advisory · focused projects

TFM — Total Flow Management

TFM is an operating-improvement method for discrete assembly plants. It targets shorter order lead times, higher on-time delivery, lower inventory and higher productivity by working across five levels to remove waiting, inventory and rework, connecting planning, kitting and delivery into one continuous chain.

Value-added flow

Value-adding time, motion and quality within an operation

Standard work · ECRS · SMED · Poka-yoke

Material flow

Movement and replenishment from warehouse to line

Supermarket · Kanban · Two-bin · PFEP · Kitting

Information flow

Demand, planning, scheduling and purchasing signals

SIOP/PSI · MRP · APS · Single-point scheduling

Management

Daily management and problem solving

SFM · KPI boards · A3

Business process

Cross-functional end-to-end process and interfaces

Order-to-delivery · Role definition

TFM was developed by Austin Zhai over two decades of manufacturing practice. Its source is the Porsche lean system, which he learned and applied at Voith; it has since been applied in projects at German and Chinese manufacturers and extended with APS and digital tools.

Three ways to work together

Diagnostic

Two days on site: a problem list and roadmap across planning, kitting and delivery.

Rates on request

A first look at the plant

Annual advisory

Standard twelve months: install the planning, kitting and delivery mechanism.

Rates on request

Manufacturers with 50–500 staff

Project-based

Kitting improvement, inventory reduction, APS implementation, plant layout, shop-floor management — run as a project.

To be discussed

Scoped case by case

Project engagements are scoped and discussed case by case. Travel at cost.

Six delivered projects

Inventory and kitting

A power-equipment assembly plant: rebuilt PSI, fixed MRP, segmented replenishment and introduced kitting.

3.0 → 1.5Order lead time

89.7% → 99.4%Schedule attainment

Inventory and kitting case: a power-equipment assembly plant; lead time down from 3.0 to 1.5, schedule attainment up from 89.7% to 99.4%, material inventory down from 130 to 100 days — Inventory and kitting · Client anonymisedRead the full case

Lead-time improvement

An equipment manufacturer: capacity-based scheduling, repaired ERP lead times and buffer management.

71 → 34 daysExisting product lead time

78 → 41 daysNew product lead time

Make-to-order, 7,000+ materials and 600 finished-goods SKUs. In four months, lead time fell by 52% for existing products and 47% for new products.

Read the full case

Inventory reduction

An automotive components plant: five-step inventory control and a new inventory mix.

71 → 50Days of inventory

RMB 102mInventory down 33% in a year

Inventory reduction case: inventory value down from RMB 305m to 203m (−33%), days of inventory down from 71 to 50 (−30%), carrying cost of RMB 7.27m a year avoided, RMB 102m released in nine months — Inventory reduction · Client anonymisedRead the full case

Process vision

An industrial equipment plant: True North, value-stream maps and layout for the next three to five years.

50 → 82Productivity

+64%Productivity potential

Process vision framework: True North, the long-term reason for existing; process vision, KPIs, value-stream design and layout for the next three to five years; master action plan, the vision broken into concrete actions for this year and next — Process vision · Client anonymisedRead the full case

Shop-floor management

A large assembly plant: takt production, shop-floor boards and A3 problem solving.

1.14 → 1.3Productivity

6 → 14New orders

Shop-floor management in six steps: KPIs and visual management; priority problems TOP1/TOP2/TOP3; go to the floor; structured problem solving with A3; process confirmation; leadership — Shop-floor management · Client anonymisedRead the full case

One-piece flow

A textile instrument components plant: line balancing, PFEP and a bottleneck fixture.

352 → 400Daily output

2,874 → 173WIP pieces

One-piece flow case: work in progress down from 2,874 to 173 pieces (−94%), floor space down 59.3%, waiting share down from 28.5% to 7.0%, downtime down from 10.67 to 0.67 hours, changeover down from 5 to 0.55 hours, daily output up 13.6%, productivity up 39.9% — One-piece flow · Client anonymisedRead the full case

Click any row to expand the summary; all six link to full one-page case studies in English. Client names are anonymised; figures come from delivered projects.

Twenty years spent on one question: does this work order have all its parts?

Twenty years of APS, lean, plant layout, shop-floor management and supply-chain BI. The same point kept stopping factories: the work order is due to start and the parts are not there. So that question now comes first — get kit readiness right, then talk about APS and AI.

Partner and senior consultant at Originflow. Previously senior consultant at Staufen (Germany) Lean Management Consulting, lean manager at Voith Paper, and IT engineer and lean engineer at Rieter Textile Instruments. MBA from Dongbei University of Finance and Economics.

APS advanced scheduling, lean digital transformation, plant and warehouse layout, shop-floor management, TPM, SMED, 5S, A3 problem solving, inventory reduction and kitting, on-time delivery, supply-chain BI.

How I work: look at the shop floor and the numbers first, then the method; do the arithmetic before talking about investment. No inflated claims, no promises I cannot deliver.

OriginflowPartner and senior consultant

Staufen (Germany)Lean management consulting · Senior consultant

Voith PaperLean Manager

Rieter Textile InstrumentsIT engineer, lean engineer

Dongbei University of Finance and EconomicsMBA

Common questions

Who is Austin Zhai?

Austin Zhai (翟卫东), publicly known as 齐套老翟, is a lean digital consultant with 20 years of manufacturing experience. He is a partner and senior consultant at Originflow, and has previously worked at Staufen (Germany), Voith Paper and Rieter Textile Instruments. He holds an MBA from Dongbei University of Finance and Economics.

What problems does he solve?

High inventory with missing parts, and plans that are made but cannot be executed, have the same root cause: kit readiness is calculated wrong. He helps discrete manufacturers get kit readiness right first, then decide whether APS and AI are worth the investment. Kit readiness is the leading indicator; lead time and inventory are its results.

Which companies is this for?

Discrete manufacturers with 50–500 employees, high-mix low-volume production and assembly lines — for example equipment manufacturing, power equipment and textile instruments. Single-product mass production and pure process industries (chemicals, food, pharmaceutical ingredients) are not a fit.

How does an engagement start?

A two-day on-site diagnostic for CNY 15,000: day one on the shop floor, with data and interviews; day two with a problem list and a 90-day roadmap. After that, clients can continue with an annual advisory retainer from CNY 68,000 a year, or a project engagement. Travel is reimbursed at cost.

How is this different from APS or ERP vendors?

No software is sold first. The planning rules, material parameters and kit-readiness mechanism are fixed first; only then does it make sense to decide whether to buy a system, and which one. Companies that already run an ERP can start by fixing parameters and processes.

How quickly are results visible?

In the published cases, the main improvements were delivered within four months: one client cut order lead time from 3.0 to 1.5 and material inventory from 130 to 100 days; another cut lead time from 71 to 34 days for existing products and from 78 to 41 days for new products. Results depend on the client's starting point and execution; no fixed percentage is promised.

Contact

Start with a diagnostic

Two days on site to see the problem clearly: a problem list and a three-to-six-month improvement roadmap. If it is not worth doing, I will say so.

Email to book a diagnostic Download the kit-readiness checklist (PDF, Chinese)

Emailaustin.zhai@hotmail.com Phone+86 150 6199 8080

WeChatzhaiweidong

WeChat Scan to connect on WeChat

Mention “checklist” to receive the kit-readiness checklist, or ask about a two-day on-site diagnostic.